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PGA · Archived event · 2026

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

2026-03-08 · 72 player field · Winner: McIlroy, Rory

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GolfIQ · Live storyline

Pre-tournament favorite finished

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highest pre-tournament win prob

Top-10 hit rate

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actual top-10 found in predicted top-10

Predicted field

72

players in pre-tournament archive

Final results

Leaderboard

72 players

FinPlayerPre-win%TotalR1R2R3R4SG TotalOTTAPPARGPUTT
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McIlroy, RoryMcIlroy, Rory
1312.0%1407268——+2.08+1.53-0.98+0.45+1.08
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Smotherman, AustinSmotherman, Austin

Closing-line value

Bet365 close vs. DataGolf model

top 10 by edge

PlayerOpenCloseEdgeFinishResult
Campbell, BrianCampbell, Brian
+1251+1501+999993.8%CUTloss
Vegas, JhonattanVegas, Jhonattan
+1001+1001+176461.9%T18loss
Putnam, Andrew
33898.0%
145
74
71
—
—
-0.42
+0.54
+0.54
-0.63
-0.87
—
Griffin, BenGriffin, Ben
7682.0%1477275——-1.42-0.94-1.48+0.52+0.49
—
Lowry, ShaneLowry, Shane
7203.0%1477473——-1.42+0.03-1.14+0.94-1.25
—
Spaun, J.J.Spaun, J.J.
8824.0%1477374——-1.42+0.30+0.26-1.33-0.64
—
Gerard, RyanGerard, Ryan
5535.0%1477770——-1.42-0.56+1.22-1.69-0.39
—
Hoge, TomHoge, Tom
72289.0%1477473——-1.42-1.53+1.04-0.94+0.01
—
Campbell, BrianCampbell, Brian
1000000.0%1477176——-1.42-1.21+0.33-0.21-0.32
—
Li, HaotongLi, Haotong
—1477770——-1.42+0.24+0.08-2.04+0.31
—
Dahmen, JoelDahmen, Joel
23346.0%1477572——-1.42+0.43+1.14-1.42-1.56
—
Burns, SamBurns, Sam
7417.0%1487474——-1.92+0.18-2.18+0.37-0.29
—
Cantlay, PatrickCantlay, Patrick
6637.0%1487177——-1.92+0.90-1.20-0.28-1.34
—
Day, JasonDay, Jason
11278.0%1487474——-1.92+0.04-1.47+0.29-0.77
—
Im, SungjaeIm, Sungjae
23256.0%1487672——-1.92-0.10-2.26-0.13+0.57
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McCarthy, DennyMcCarthy, Denny
33520.0%1497277——-2.42-0.16-1.27+0.35-1.33
—
Coody, PiercesonCoody, Pierceson
6452.0%1497970——-2.42-0.06-0.54-1.75-0.07
—
Bradley, KeeganBradley, Keegan
8824.0%1497178——-2.42-0.08-0.15-0.25-1.93
—
Rose, JustinRose, Justin
7426.0%1507080——-2.92-1.88+1.77-0.91-1.89
—
Stevens, SamStevens, Sam
12987.0%1507476——-2.92+0.21-2.61+0.05-0.57
—
Potgieter, AldrichPotgieter, Aldrich
50847.0%1557976——-5.42+0.49-1.84-0.79-3.28
—
Poston, J.T.Poston, J.T.
29268.0%1567581——-5.92-0.34-2.95-1.93-0.69
—
Thomas, JustinThomas, Justin
9524.0%1587979——-6.92-3.23-2.59+2.04-3.14
—
Bhatia, AkshayBhatia, Akshay
11561.0%27370666869+3.47-1.09+0.49+1.42+2.65
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Berger, DanielBerger, Daniel
18809.0%27363687270+3.47+0.36+1.98+0.36+0.77
—
Young, CameronYoung, Cameron
4556.0%27667736769+2.72+1.85+0.43+0.02+0.41
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Aberg, LudvigAberg, Ludvig
7101.0%27666717267+2.72+0.75+1.34+0.36+0.27
—
Morikawa, CollinMorikawa, Collin
3501.0%27766717070+2.47+0.60+1.01+0.16+0.69
—
Henley, RussellHenley, Russell
5576.0%27870697168+2.22+0.49-0.28+0.71+1.30
—
Theegala, SahithTheegala, Sahith
16349.0%27870677566+2.22+0.14+1.00+1.23-0.15
—
Lee, Min WooLee, Min Woo
4942.0%27869716870+2.22+0.26+1.15+0.63+0.18
—
Fowler, RickieFowler, Rickie
6431.0%28069697270+1.72+0.60-0.08+0.02+1.18
—
Hall, HarryHall, Harry
19672.0%28073696870+1.72-0.01+0.36+0.44+0.92
—
Spieth, JordanSpieth, Jordan
13015.0%28272716871+1.22+0.03+0.58+0.04+0.56
—
Scott, AdamScott, Adam
7491.0%28268737170+1.22-0.31+0.70+0.05+0.77
—
McNealy, MaverickMcNealy, Maverick
6696.0%28370746970+0.97+0.68-0.25+0.57-0.03
—
Kim, Si WooKim, Si Woo
3460.0%28371717170+0.97+0.47+0.59+0.30-0.40
—
Horschel, BillyHorschel, Billy
61856.0%28369747268+0.97-0.66-0.56+0.40+1.78
—
Straka, SeppStraka, Sepp
12474.0%28372696676+0.97+0.21+1.13-0.42+0.05
—
Hovland, ViktorHovland, Viktor
6795.0%28372726772+0.97-0.52+0.63-0.14+1.00
—
Gotterup, ChrisGotterup, Chris
6579.0%28569716976+0.47-0.07+0.33+0.11+0.09
—
Vegas, JhonattanVegas, Jhonattan
176471.0%28567766973+0.47-0.11+0.29+0.12+0.17
—
Greyserman, MaxGreyserman, Max
18987.0%28574707467+0.47-1.48+0.80-0.60+1.74
—
Cauley, BudCauley, Bud
55556.0%28569717174+0.47+0.00+0.06+0.28+0.13
—
Bridgeman, JacobBridgeman, Jacob
8608.0%28575696972+0.47+0.18-0.24-0.44+0.97
—
Kitayama, KurtKitayama, Kurt
5063.0%28569747171+0.47+0.74+0.18-0.86+0.41
—
Glover, LucasGlover, Lucas
58252.0%28673737070+0.22-0.52+0.06+0.87-0.19
—
English, HarrisEnglish, Harris
4918.0%28669727273+0.22+0.18+0.12-0.41+0.34
—
MacIntyre, RobertMacIntyre, Robert
6772.0%28672727270+0.22+1.14-1.36-0.02+0.46
—
Noren, AlexNoren, Alex
10830.0%28672726973+0.22+0.10+0.03+0.40-0.31
—
Fox, RyanFox, Ryan
24896.0%28668727571+0.22+0.32-0.20+0.30-0.20
—
Schauffele, XanderSchauffele, Xander
3083.0%28668717374+0.22-0.12+0.16+0.30-0.13
—
Scheffler, ScottieScheffler, Scottie
588.0%28670717273+0.22+0.32-0.70+0.73-0.14
—
Rodgers, PatrickRodgers, Patrick
26549.0%28672736873+0.22-0.27+0.58-0.46+0.36
—
NHHojgaard, Nicolai
6363.0%28672737071+0.22+0.41-0.18+0.03-0.05
—
Conners, CoreyConners, Corey
10870.0%28769747272-0.03+0.25+0.93+0.12-1.34
—
Mitchell, KeithMitchell, Keith
8415.0%28769767369-0.03+0.53+1.16-0.65-1.07
—
Hisatsune, RyoHisatsune, Ryo
20134.0%28771717273-0.03+0.38+0.07+0.11-0.60
—
Thorbjornsen, MichaelThorbjornsen, Michael
12474.0%28770717175-0.03-0.55+0.31-0.01+0.21
—
Kim, MichaelKim, Michael
63830.0%28775697172-0.03+0.41+0.72+0.08-1.25
—
Novak, AndrewNovak, Andrew
38462.0%28874727171-0.28-0.15-0.56-0.35+0.78
—
Taylor, NickTaylor, Nick
12371.0%28872727569-0.28-1.35+0.10+1.10-0.13
—
Pendrith, TaylorPendrith, Taylor
17964.0%28873737171-0.28+0.72+1.57+0.09-2.67
—
McCarty, MattMcCarty, Matt
17192.0%28975707173-0.53-0.13-1.00-0.31+0.90
—
Fitzpatrick, MattFitzpatrick, Matt
2691.0%28974707075-0.53-0.07-1.29+0.19+0.64
—
Matsuyama, HidekiMatsuyama, Hideki
4804.0%28970747372-0.53+0.17-0.75+0.28-0.24
—
Putnam, AndrewPutnam, Andrew
120000.0%29073717373-0.78-1.21+0.66+0.33-0.56
—
Echavarria, NicoEchavarria, Nico
18692.0%29072747173-0.78+0.75-0.68-1.44+0.59
—
Moore, TaylorMoore, Taylor
31414.0%29071747273-0.78+0.75-1.43-0.56+0.45
—
Bennett, DanielBennett, Daniel
—29371717774-1.53-1.30+0.35-0.74+0.16
—
Kirk, ChrisKirk, Chris
29412.0%29373727573-1.53+0.59-1.35-0.44-0.34
—
Fleetwood, TommyFleetwood, Tommy
2404.0%29476697673-1.78-0.37-0.57+0.49-1.33
—
Harman, BrianHarman, Brian
42254.0%29873737874-2.78-1.49-0.27-0.15-0.87
Putnam, Andrew
+451
+401
+119980.0%
T44
loss
Hoge, TomHoge, Tom
+251+276+72262.4%CUTloss
Kim, MichaelKim, Michael
+201+201+63796.8%T33loss
Horschel, BillyHorschel, Billy
+351+351+61833.8%T13loss
Glover, LucasGlover, Lucas
+351+451+58233.9%T24loss
Cauley, BudCauley, Bud
+251+251+55527.5%T18loss
Potgieter, AldrichPotgieter, Aldrich
+126+171+50810.1%CUTloss
Harman, BrianHarman, Brian
+151+151+42214.2%50loss

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