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PGA · Archived event · 2025

The Open Championship · Royal Portrush Golf Club

2025-07-20 · 156 player field · Winner: Manassero, Matteo

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GolfIQ · Live storyline

Pre-tournament favorite finished

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highest pre-tournament win prob

Top-10 hit rate

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actual top-10 found in predicted top-10

Predicted field

156

players in pre-tournament archive

Final results

Leaderboard

156 players

FinPlayerPre-win%TotalR1R2R3R4SG TotalOTTAPPARGPUTT
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Manassero, MatteoManassero, Matteo
100000.0%1447371——+0.22-0.40-0.61+1.06+0.18
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Fox, RyanFox, Ryan

Closing-line value

Bet365 close vs. DataGolf model

top 10 by edge

PlayerOpenCloseEdgeFinishResult
JAAxelsen, John
+3001+3001+5999996.8%CUTloss
RJJohnston, Ryggs
+1251+2501+5999996.2%T63loss
16807.0%
144
75
69
—
—
+0.22
+0.90
+1.32
-0.76
-1.24
—
Suh, JustinSuh, Justin
857143.0%1447371——+0.22+0.11-0.39-0.71+1.21
—
Niemann, JoaquinNiemann, Joaquin
6085.0%1447074——+0.22+0.53-0.17+0.26-0.40
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Hoshino, RikuyaHoshino, Rikuya
181818.0%1447470——+0.22-1.56+0.80+0.21+0.78
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Day, JasonDay, Jason
12658.0%1447371——+0.22-0.34+0.69+1.43-1.55
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Hillier, DanielHillier, Daniel
139535.0%1447173——+0.22+0.54-0.21-0.63+0.52
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Griffin, BenGriffin, Ben
8915.0%1447470——+0.22-1.66+0.56+1.28+0.05
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JAAxelsen, John
6000000.0%1457075——-0.28-0.21-1.25+0.20+0.99
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AHHidalgo Portillo, Angel
1500000.0%1457075——-0.28+0.71-0.69-0.58+0.28
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Yu, KevinYu, Kevin
16949.0%1457966——-0.28+0.20-0.60-0.35+0.47
—
McCarthy, DennyMcCarthy, Denny
23622.0%1457471——-0.28-0.58+0.46-0.46+0.30
—
Smylie, ElvisSmylie, Elvis
333333.0%1457570——-0.28-0.12+0.30-0.17-0.28
—
Pendrith, TaylorPendrith, Taylor
10657.0%1457570——-0.28-0.23+0.51-0.48-0.08
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Fang, EthanFang, Ethan
3000000.0%1457570——-0.28+0.41-0.93+0.04+0.20
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GBBloor, George
—1457372——-0.28-0.86-0.86+1.07+0.38
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McKibbin, TomMcKibbin, Tom
14851.0%1457273——-0.28-0.85-0.91-0.78+2.27
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JGGuerrier, Julien
125000.0%1457372——-0.28-0.24-1.55+0.03+1.48
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McCarty, MattMcCarty, Matt
36145.0%1457174——-0.28+0.14-0.82+0.43-0.03
—
Taylor, NickTaylor, Nick
13793.0%1457768——-0.28+0.51-0.63-0.66+0.50
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Kim, Si WooKim, Si Woo
13304.0%1457471——-0.28+1.24-0.07-0.12-1.33
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CAAdam, Cameron
6000000.0%1457372——-0.28-0.96+1.48+0.32-1.12
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Kim, TomKim, Tom
21583.0%1456976——-0.28-0.56-0.78-1.12+2.19
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Ortiz, CarlosOrtiz, Carlos
24194.0%1457570——-0.28-0.06-0.17+0.52-0.56
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Campbell, BrianCampbell, Brian
206897.0%1457372——-0.28+0.27-1.82+0.75+0.53
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Johnson, ZachJohnson, Zach
193548.0%1457075——-0.28+0.13+0.76+0.26-1.43
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Greyserman, MaxGreyserman, Max
14599.0%1457867——-0.28-1.91-0.38+1.43+0.58
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Cantlay, PatrickCantlay, Patrick
6711.0%1457372——-0.28-0.86+0.75+1.15-1.32
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TOOlesen, Thorbjorn
21127.0%1467274——-0.78+0.29+0.66-0.34-1.39
—
Herbert, LucasHerbert, Lucas
23810.0%1467472——-0.78+0.18+0.50-0.84-0.61
—
Penge, MarcoPenge, Marco
11881.0%1467472——-0.78-0.08+1.46-0.14-2.02
—
Farrell, OJFarrell, OJ
—1467472——-0.78+0.16-0.45+0.76-1.25
—
Norgaard, NiklasNorgaard, Niklas
36364.0%1467769——-0.78+0.58-0.33-0.32-0.71
—
Young, CameronYoung, Cameron
24691.0%1467472——-0.78-0.28-0.55+0.45-0.39
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JSSandborg, Jesper
—1467274——-0.78-0.04+0.65-1.51+0.13
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Cink, StewartCink, Stewart
157895.0%1467571——-0.78+0.26-1.74+0.37+0.33
—
DYYoung, Daniel
750000.0%1467571——-0.78-0.08+0.48-0.76-0.42
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YSSong, Younghan
857143.0%1467373——-0.78-0.68+0.12-0.61+0.39
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Echavarria, NicoEchavarria, Nico
38710.0%1467274——-0.78-0.75+0.55+0.22-0.79
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Naidoo, DylanNaidoo, Dylan
750000.0%1467472——-0.78+0.45-2.11+0.29+0.60
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Kim, MichaelKim, Michael
26786.0%1467472——-0.78+0.57-1.25+0.66-0.76
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Catlin, JohnCatlin, John
187500.0%1467868——-0.78+0.26+0.07-0.47-0.64
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Lee, Min WooLee, Min Woo
26906.0%1477473——-1.28+0.42-2.49+1.30-0.51
—
Cauley, BudCauley, Bud
31250.0%1477275——-1.28-0.31-1.41+0.02+0.43
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Kirk, ChrisKirk, Chris
58824.0%1477374——-1.28+1.09-1.36-0.93-0.08
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An, Byeong HunAn, Byeong Hun
25974.0%1477671——-1.28-0.40+0.53+0.11-1.52
—
SKKaewkanjana, Sadom
285714.0%1476879——-1.28-0.22-0.01+0.47-1.52
—
Reed, PatrickReed, Patrick
11194.0%1477770——-1.28-1.64-0.03+0.56-0.17
—
Pavon, MatthieuPavon, Matthieu
193548.0%1477671——-1.28-1.06+0.29-0.05-0.45
—
Norris, ShaunNorris, Shaun
461538.0%1477275——-1.28-0.99-2.79+0.43+2.08
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Potgieter, AldrichPotgieter, Aldrich
77922.0%1477770——-1.28-0.18-0.09-0.95-0.05
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Oosthuizen, LouisOosthuizen, Louis
29126.0%1487771——-1.78+1.40-2.06-0.61-0.50
—
Clarke, DarrenClarke, Darren
2000000.0%1487573——-1.78+0.19-0.60+0.77-2.14
—
Jaeger, StephanJaeger, Stephan
85714.0%1487276——-1.78-3.47-0.08+0.49+1.29
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Canter, LaurieCanter, Laurie
26316.0%1487474——-1.78+0.83+0.00-0.08-2.53
—
Thompson, DavisThompson, Davis
20833.0%1487375——-1.78-1.05-1.87-0.94+2.08
—
FJJakubcik, Filip
750000.0%1487573——-1.78-0.98+0.31-0.21-0.90
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CKKnipes, Curtis
—1487375——-1.78-0.31-0.34+0.07-1.19
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Hastings, JustinHastings, Justin
6000000.0%1487474——-1.78+0.18-2.33+0.59-0.21
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Poston, J.T.Poston, J.T.
22140.0%1497277——-2.28-0.02-0.57+0.16-1.84
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DBBrown, Daniel
52632.0%1497673——-2.28+0.50-0.13-1.39-1.26
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Theegala, SahithTheegala, Sahith
89552.0%1497574——-2.28+0.14-2.69-0.20+0.48
—
Fichardt, DarrenFichardt, Darren
1500000.0%1497871——-2.28+0.10-1.99+1.77-2.16
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Morikawa, CollinMorikawa, Collin
4301.0%1497574——-2.28-1.02-1.87-0.13+0.74
—
Hughes, MackenzieHughes, Mackenzie
37736.0%1497970——-2.28+1.19-1.88-1.98+0.40
—
Koepka, BrooksKoepka, Brooks
24291.0%1497574——-2.28-1.31-0.10-0.34-0.52
—
Walters, JustinWalters, Justin
—1507377——-2.78-1.80-0.76-0.06-0.15
—
RPPeake, Ryan
—1507773——-2.78-1.15+0.52-0.11-2.04
—
Zheng, SampsonZheng, Sampson
2000000.0%1507773——-2.78-0.29-1.44+0.01-1.05
—
RTTeder, Richard
—1507476——-2.78+1.32-0.16-0.76-3.18
—
Smith, CameronSmith, Cameron
22727.0%1507278——-2.78-2.69-0.08+0.47-0.48
—
FJJones, Frazer
—1507773——-2.78-2.29-1.96+1.38+0.10
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Luck, CurtisLuck, Curtis
750000.0%1508070——-2.78-0.84+0.29-1.06-1.16
—
Scott, AdamScott, Adam
8403.0%1517279——-3.28-1.24-1.77-0.05-0.21
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Imahira, ShugoImahira, Shugo
1200000.0%1517675——-3.28+0.25+0.20-2.04-1.69
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Riley, DavisRiley, Davis
130435.0%1517774——-3.28-0.35-1.49-0.27-1.17
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MAAkutsu, Mikiya
3000000.0%1517873——-3.28-0.60-1.04-0.14-1.49
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Harrington, PadraigHarrington, Padraig
193548.0%1517576——-3.28-2.21+1.04-1.42-0.69
—
MCCouvra, Martin
101695.0%1517873——-3.28-1.71+0.02-1.31-0.28
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CGGraham, Connor
3000000.0%1527379——-3.78+0.22-1.37+0.06-2.68
RK
Kawamoto, Riki
+2001
+2001
+5999995.2%
T63
loss
Hastings, JustinHastings, Justin
+2001+2001+5999995.2%CUTloss
CAAdam, Cameron
+1501+2001+5999995.2%CUTloss
MAAkutsu, Mikiya
+3001+3001+2999996.8%CUTloss
CGGraham, Connor
+1501+2001+2999995.2%CUTloss
Fang, EthanFang, Ethan
+1001+1001+2999990.9%CUTloss
Clarke, DarrenClarke, Darren
+2001+3001+1999996.8%CUTloss
Zheng, SampsonZheng, Sampson
+3001+2501+1999996.2%CUTloss

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