Model accuracy · historical archive
Backtest of the baseline_history_fit pre-tournament predictions across every archived event (269 events, 191with complete round data). Calibration buckets compare predicted win probability against actual win rate. Favorite ROI flat-bets the model's top win pick at the bet365 closing price.
GolfIQ · Live storyline
Favorite win rate
15.2%
29 wins / 191 events
Avg favorite finish
T12
lower is better
Top-10 hit rate
26.9%
actual top 10 in predicted top 10
Favorite ROI (loss)
-8.4%
30 wins / 267 bets · bet365 close
Calibration
by win-prob bucket
For each bucket of pre-tournament win probabilities, the bars show the average predicted win% (cyan) next to the actual win rate observed (green). A perfectly calibrated model has green bars exactly as tall as cyan ones.
269 archived events
newest first
| Date | Tour | Event | Pre-tourney favorite | Pred win% | Fin | Winner | Winner pred% | T10 hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | PGA | ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic | Thompson, Davis | 4.8% | 13 | Snedeker, Brandt | 0.2% | 1/10 |
| 2026-05-10 | PGA | Truist Championship | McIlroy, Rory | 11.2% | 19 | Reitan, Kristoffer | 0.7% | 3/12 |
| 2026-05-03 | PGA | Cadillac Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.8% | 2 | Young, Cameron | 7.0% | 3/13 |
| 2026-04-19 | PGA | RBC Heritage | Scheffler, Scottie | 13.7% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 13.7% | 6/11 |
| 2026-04-12 | PGA | Masters Tournament | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.2% | 2 | McIlroy, Rory | 6.0% | 4/10 |
| 2026-04-05 | PGA | Valero Texas Open | Aberg, Ludvig | 4.7% | 5 | Spaun, J.J. | 1.9% | 4/13 |
| 2026-03-29 | PGA | Texas Children's Houston Open | Lee, Min Woo | 6.0% | 3 | Woodland, Gary | 0.6% | 4/11 |
| 2026-03-22 | PGA | Valspar Championship | Schauffele, Xander | 7.8% | 4 | Fitzpatrick, Matt | 6.8% | 3/10 |
| 2026-03-15 | PGA | THE PLAYERS Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 10.9% | 22 | Young, Cameron | 2.4% | 4/10 |
| 2026-03-08 | PGA | Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.0% | 24 | Bhatia, Akshay | 0.9% | 2/10 |
| 2026-03-08 | PGA | Puerto Rico Open | Hojgaard, Rasmus | 7.2% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2026-03-01 | PGA | Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches | Gerard, Ryan | 5.1% | 23 | Echavarria, Nico | 1.4% | 4/12 |
| 2026-02-22 | PGA | The Genesis Invitational | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.9% | 12 | Bridgeman, Jacob | 0.7% | 4/11 |
| 2026-02-15 | PGA | AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Scheffler, Scottie | 21.1% | 4 | Morikawa, Collin | 1.2% | 2/13 |
| 2026-02-08 | PGA | WM Phoenix Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 26.7% | 3 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 3.2% | 4/12 |
| 2026-02-01 | PGA | Farmers Insurance Open | Schauffele, Xander | 6.5% | — | Rose, Justin | 1.4% | 2/10 |
| 2026-01-25 | PGA | The American Express | Scheffler, Scottie | 21.1% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 21.1% | 3/12 |
| 2026-01-18 | PGA | Sony Open in Hawaii | Henley, Russell | 9.0% | 19 | Gotterup, Chris | 1.4% | 1/10 |
| 2025-12-14 | PGA | PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry | Ghim, Doug | 4.8% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-12-07 | PGA | Hero World Challenge | Scheffler, Scottie | 39.7% | 4 | Noren, Alex | 3.4% | 5/10 |
| 2025-11-23 | PGA | The RSM Classic | English, Harris | 3.8% | 47 | Valimaki, Sami | 1.4% | 4/17 |
| 2025-11-16 | PGA | Butterfield Bermuda Championship | Hoey, Rico | 4.5% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-11-09 | PGA | World Wide Technology Championship | Spaun, J.J. | 7.1% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-10-26 | PGA | Bank of Utah Championship | Thorbjornsen, Michael | 4.8% | 37 | Brennan, Michael | 1.3% | 2/10 |
| 2025-10-05 | PGA | Sanderson Farms Championship | Bhatia, Akshay | 4.1% | — | Fisk, Steven | 0.8% | 1/10 |
| 2025-09-14 | PGA | Procore Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 26.0% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 26.0% | 3/10 |
| 2025-08-24 | PGA | TOUR Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 31.3% | 4 | Fleetwood, Tommy | 7.0% | 5/11 |
| 2025-08-17 | PGA | BMW Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 23.1% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 23.1% | 3/10 |
| 2025-08-10 | PGA | FedEx St. Jude Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.1% | 3 | Spaun, J.J. | 1.5% | 2/13 |
| 2025-08-03 | PGA | Wyndham Championship | Rai, Aaron | 4.6% | 5 | Young, Cameron | 0.6% | 2/10 |
| 2025-07-27 | PGA | 3M Open | McNealy, Maverick | 5.1% | — | Kitayama, Kurt | 1.8% | 2/11 |
| 2025-07-20 | PGA | The Open Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 14.4% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 14.4% | 4/13 |
| 2025-07-20 | PGA | Barracuda Championship | Gerard, Ryan | 4.3% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-07-13 | PGA | Genesis Scottish Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 11.9% | 8 | Gotterup, Chris | 1.4% | 5/10 |
| 2025-07-06 | PGA | John Deere Classic | Griffin, Ben | 5.7% | — | Grillo, Emiliano | 1.4% | 0/10 |
| 2025-06-29 | PGA | Rocket Classic | Morikawa, Collin | 6.7% | 8 | Potgieter, Aldrich | 2.1% | 2/12 |
| 2025-06-22 | PGA | Travelers Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.6% | 6 | Bradley, Keegan | 3.2% | 5/11 |
| 2025-06-15 | PGA | U.S. Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.8% | 7 | Spaun, J.J. | 0.7% | 2/11 |
| 2025-06-01 | PGA | the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday | Scheffler, Scottie | 22.5% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 22.5% | 1/11 |
| 2025-05-25 | PGA | Charles Schwab Challenge | Scheffler, Scottie | 25.3% | 4 | Griffin, Ben | 1.5% | 2/10 |
| 2025-05-18 | PGA | PGA Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.4% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.4% | 4/16 |
| 2025-05-11 | PGA | ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic | Hughes, Mackenzie | 3.7% | ✓ 1 | Hughes, Mackenzie | 3.7% | 6/12 |
| 2025-05-04 | PGA | THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.5% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.5% | 2/12 |
| 2025-04-20 | PGA | Corales Puntacana Championship | Smalley, Alex | 5.9% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-04-20 | PGA | RBC Heritage | Scheffler, Scottie | 13.4% | 8 | Thomas, Justin | 2.8% | 4/10 |
| 2025-04-13 | PGA | Masters Tournament | Scheffler, Scottie | 11.3% | 4 | Rose, Justin | 8.7% | 4/11 |
| 2025-04-06 | PGA | Valero Texas Open | Conners, Corey | 5.4% | 18 | Harman, Brian | 0.7% | 0/11 |
| 2025-03-30 | PGA | Texas Children's Houston Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 15.0% | 2 | Lee, Min Woo | 1.6% | 4/10 |
| 2025-03-23 | PGA | Valspar Championship | Fleetwood, Tommy | 8.7% | 16 | Hovland, Viktor | 0.9% | 3/11 |
| 2025-03-16 | PGA | THE PLAYERS Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.5% | 20 | Spaun, J.J. | 3.3% | 2/10 |
| 2025-03-09 | PGA | Puerto Rico Open | Norgaard, Niklas | 4.0% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2025-03-09 | PGA | Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard | Scheffler, Scottie | 14.0% | 11 | Henley, Russell | 2.4% | 2/10 |
| 2025-03-02 | PGA | Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches | Lowry, Shane | 3.5% | 11 | Highsmith, Joe | 1.0% | 1/10 |
| 2025-02-23 | PGA | Mexico Open at VidantaWorld | Hojgaard, Rasmus | 5.0% | 34 | Potgieter, Aldrich | 0.4% | 4/12 |
| 2025-02-16 | PGA | The Genesis Invitational | Scheffler, Scottie | 13.8% | 3 | Aberg, Ludvig | 2.0% | 3/11 |
| 2025-02-09 | PGA | WM Phoenix Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 25.5% | 25 | Detry, Thomas | 0.7% | 2/11 |
| 2025-02-02 | PGA | AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Scheffler, Scottie | 16.1% | 9 | McIlroy, Rory | 5.7% | 2/11 |
| 2025-01-25 | PGA | Farmers Insurance Open | Matsuyama, Hideki | 7.3% | 32 | English, Harris | 0.9% | 2/14 |
| 2025-01-19 | PGA | The American Express | Im, Sungjae | 5.8% | — | Straka, Sepp | 1.5% | 3/10 |
| 2025-01-12 | PGA | Sony Open in Hawaii | Matsuyama, Hideki | 8.3% | 16 | Taylor, Nick | 0.9% | 2/15 |
| 2025-01-05 | PGA | The Sentry | Schauffele, Xander | 11.1% | 30 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 3.6% | 5/12 |
| 2024-12-15 | PGA | PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry | Kanaya, Takumi | 5.0% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2024-12-08 | PGA | Hero World Challenge | Scheffler, Scottie | 29.4% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 29.4% | 6/10 |
| 2024-11-24 | PGA | The RSM Classic | Aberg, Ludvig | 6.0% | 17 | McNealy, Maverick | 2.8% | 1/10 |
| 2024-11-17 | PGA | Butterfield Bermuda Championship | McNealy, Maverick | 5.2% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2024-11-10 | PGA | World Wide Technology Championship | Ghim, Doug | 4.6% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2024-10-27 | PGA | ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Schauffele, Xander | 14.3% | 41 | Echavarria, Nico | 0.4% | 3/10 |
| 2024-10-20 | PGA | Shriners Children's Open | Pendrith, Taylor | 4.1% | 8 | Poston, J.T. | 1.6% | 5/13 |
| 2024-10-06 | PGA | Sanderson Farms Championship | Mitchell, Keith | 3.6% | 3 | Yu, Kevin | 1.4% | 2/10 |
| 2024-09-15 | PGA | Procore Championship | Clark, Wyndham | 7.2% | — | Kizzire, Patton | 0.4% | 3/11 |
| 2024-09-01 | PGA | TOUR Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 46.5% | 3 | Morikawa, Collin | 2.6% | 3/11 |
| 2024-08-18 | PGA | FedEx St. Jude Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.0% | 4 | Matsuyama, Hideki | 2.5% | 3/11 |
| 2024-08-11 | PGA | Wyndham Championship | Im, Sungjae | 6.3% | 41 | Rai, Aaron | 2.7% | 2/11 |
| 2024-08-04 | PGA | Olympic Men's Golf Competition | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.9% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 18.9% | 6/13 |
| 2024-07-28 | PGA | 3M Open | Finau, Tony | 4.8% | 12 | Vegas, Jhonattan | 0.7% | 2/11 |
| 2024-07-21 | PGA | The Open Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 11.5% | 7 | Schauffele, Xander | 7.2% | 3/12 |
| 2024-07-21 | PGA | Barracuda Championship | Mitchell, Keith | 6.3% | — | Fishburn, Patrick | 1.9% | 3/12 |
| 2024-07-14 | PGA | ISCO Championship | Clanton, Luke | 8.0% | 37 | NeSmith, Matt | 2.0% | 1/14 |
| 2024-07-14 | PGA | Genesis Scottish Open | Schauffele, Xander | 8.3% | 15 | MacIntyre, Robert | 1.0% | 5/14 |
| 2024-07-07 | PGA | John Deere Classic | Im, Sungjae | 5.4% | 12 | Thompson, Davis | 3.6% | 4/11 |
| 2024-06-30 | PGA | Rocket Mortgage Classic | Kim, Tom | 6.0% | — | Davis, Cam | 1.0% | 5/16 |
| 2024-06-23 | PGA | Travelers Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.9% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.9% | 2/12 |
| 2024-06-16 | PGA | U.S. Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 19.8% | 41 | DeChambeau, Bryson | 2.4% | 4/11 |
| 2024-06-09 | PGA | the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday | Scheffler, Scottie | 19.2% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 19.2% | 4/11 |
| 2024-06-02 | PGA | RBC Canadian Open | McIlroy, Rory | 13.1% | 4 | MacIntyre, Robert | 0.7% | 5/13 |
| 2024-05-26 | PGA | Charles Schwab Challenge | Scheffler, Scottie | 23.7% | 2 | Riley, Davis | 0.1% | 2/11 |
| 2024-05-19 | PGA | PGA Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 16.7% | 8 | Schauffele, Xander | 7.8% | 5/11 |
| 2024-05-12 | PGA | Wells Fargo Championship | McIlroy, Rory | 8.7% | ✓ 1 | McIlroy, Rory | 8.7% | 2/12 |
| 2024-05-05 | PGA | THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Kim, Si Woo | 5.9% | 13 | Pendrith, Taylor | 0.7% | 2/12 |
| 2024-04-21 | PGA | RBC Heritage | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.5% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 17.5% | 4/11 |
| 2024-04-21 | PGA | Corales Puntacana Championship | Noren, Alex | 6.2% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2024-04-14 | PGA | Masters Tournament | Scheffler, Scottie | 14.6% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 14.6% | 4/11 |
| 2024-04-07 | PGA | Valero Texas Open | McIlroy, Rory | 5.4% | 3 | McCarthy, Denny | 1.3% | 5/13 |
| 2024-03-31 | PGA | Texas Children's Houston Open | Scheffler, Scottie | 23.8% | 2 | Jaeger, Stephan | 1.4% | 2/10 |
| 2024-03-24 | PGA | Valspar Championship | Schauffele, Xander | 13.2% | 5 | Malnati, Peter | 0.2% | 2/10 |
| 2024-03-17 | PGA | THE PLAYERS Championship | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.4% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 12.4% | 3/10 |
| 2024-03-10 | PGA | Puerto Rico Open | Hojgaard, Rasmus | 6.0% | — | — | — | 0/0 |
| 2024-03-10 | PGA | Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard | Scheffler, Scottie | 11.3% | ✓ 1 | Scheffler, Scottie | 11.3% | 1/11 |
| 2024-03-03 | PGA | Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches | McIlroy, Rory | 8.5% | 21 | Eckroat, Austin | 0.7% | 2/15 |
| 2024-02-25 | PGA | Mexico Open at Vidanta | Finau, Tony | 8.4% | 13 | Knapp, Jake | 1.4% | 3/12 |
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